Early data from some groundbreaking research reveal some surprising findings about full-time and part-time course loads for online college students.

Turns out that at-risk students fare better in their studies if they take fewer classes at first, Inside Higher Ed reports.

Trouble is, if you’re a low-income student and you need as much Pell Grant money as possible, there’s a strong incentive to take at least 12 credit hours per semester.

“So the question becomes, is the current federal financial aid structure actually setting these individuals up for failure?” Phil Ice, vice president of research and development for the American Public University System and the project’s lead investigator, told Inside Higher Ed.

Researchers, funded by a $1 million grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, created a massive database measuring 33 variables for the online coursework of 640,000 students at a handful of public and for-profit colleges:

• American Public University System
• Colorado Community College System
• Rio Salado College
• University of Hawaii System
• University of Illinois-Springfield
• University of Phoenix

The WICHE Cooperative for Educational Technologies, or WCET, is leading the work-in-progress data-mining project.

Researchers have proved skeptics wrong by creating such an enormous, workable database. As they keep analyzing the data they’ve amassed so far, the project’s leaders may add up to 18 new institutions to a second round.

All this data could wind up serving as something of a match-making service for students and online universities, Ice told Inside Higher Ed.

Online programs are becoming a growing force in the American higher education system.

U.S. News and World Report recently published its first-ever rankings of online degree programs, which have seen enrollments soar past 6 million in recent years.

Stanford University has joined MIT and other top-notch schools in offering free online classes, touching off a lively debate about the pros and cons of the so-called “flipped classroom.”

In some states, students have to take at least one online class to get a high school diploma, is a high school graduation requirement, and there’s a push to make it a requirement in more states.